February Refined Lead Import and Export Situation and Overseas Lead Arrival Dynamics in March [SMM Analysis]

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SMM March 20 News:

According to customs data, for exports, refined lead exports in February 2025 were 8,460 mt, up 1,460.74% MoM and 370.16% YoY; the combined export volume of refined lead and lead products from January to February was 11,685 mt, up 30.64% YoY. For imports, refined lead imports in February 2025 were 1,660 mt, and lead alloy imports were 8,498 mt. The combined import volume of refined lead and lead products from January to February was 21,958 mt, up 208.45% YoY.

In February, as the Chinese New Year holiday ended, companies along the lead industry chain in China resumed production, and spot market transactions gradually recovered. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE lead saw a strong opening, with the most-traded contract rising from 16,700 yuan/mt before the holiday to above 17,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the US imposed additional tariffs, and the supply-demand relationship remained in a stalemate, leading SHFE lead to enter a prolonged consolidation phase. In the overseas market, although lead ingots were in a destocking state, there was also significant concern over the US tariff hike, causing LME lead to fluctuate at high levels. During this period, some refined lead was exported overseas.

In March, with the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, the lead market showed a pattern of increased supply and demand. The Two Sessions were held in China, proposing many policies to boost the economy, which alleviated concerns about the US tariff hike. Non-ferrous metals in the Shanghai market generally rebounded, and SHFE lead also fluctuated upward, with the SHFE lead 2504 contract reaching a high of 17,755 yuan/mt, the highest level in nearly three months.

The import window briefly opened, and overseas lead ingots began arriving at ports in mid-to-late March. Recently, traders quoted a discount of 200 yuan/mt (against SMM 1# lead average price) for self pick-up, attracting purchases from secondary lead smelters. We will continue to monitor changes in the price spread between domestic and overseas markets, the domestic supply-demand relationship, and the risk of US tariff hikes.